Learning Objective #1: Describe nonlinear theories and their usefulness in nursing administration and leadership situations

Learning Objective #2: Evaluate staff nurse potential for turnover based upon catastrophe theory models

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Nurses are needed in hospital settings to provide safe patient care. Current projections of the nursing shortage indicate that nurses will be leaving nursing at a faster rate than they are entering (Buerhaus, Staiger & Auerbach, 2000), thereby jeopardizing safe patient care. The ability to predict turnover behavior and target effective retention measures to those staff nurses at risk for turnover behavior would allow for the alleviation of some of the nursing shortage effects. Therefore, it is imperative that a valid and reliable predictive turnover model be used in nursing. Previous work with nursing turnover has resulted in linear models with low predictive ability. Nonlinear models in turnover behavior have great potential for predictive application in nursing. Catastrophe theory (Thom, 1975; Zeeman, 1976) has been applied in a variety of discontinuous events in behavioral sciences, including organizational behaviors such as employee turnover (Sheridan & Abelson, 1983). Catastrophe models, particularly the cusp catastrophe model, create a conceptual framework upon which to base research into work-related issues that have a strong emotional component. Because turnover occurs in the context of affective responses and nonlinear behaviors, the cusp catastrophe model shows promise for greater predictability in nurse turnover explorations (Sheridan, 1980, 1985a; Sheridan & Abelson, 1983; Wagner & Huber, 2003).