Predicting NCLEX Success with the Elsevier Evolve Exit Exam: The Eighth Study of Validity

Tuesday, 13 July 2010: 8:30 AM

Rae W. Langford, EdD
Anne Young, RN, EdD
College of Nursing, Texas Woman's University, Houston, TX

Learning Objective 1: 1. describe the predictive validity of parallel forms of NCLEX® simulation examinations.

Learning Objective 2: 2. examine the effectiveness of simulation exam strategies such as retesting, and use of case studies in preparation and remediation

Purpose: The purpose of this descriptive study is to continue the scrutiny of the Elsevier’s Evolve Exit Exam (E2) as an accurate predictor of success on the NCLEX-RN licensure examination.   The effectiveness of exam strategies such as retesting, and use of case studies   as well as progression policies were also explored.
Methods: A randomly drawn sample of 137 AD, BS, and Diploma programs across the United States were approached for study participation. The preliminary sample consists of 58 programs representing 3435 students.  Predictive accuracy was determined by calculating the NCLEX-RN exam pass rate for those who scored 900 and above on the E² at each of three test administrations.
Results: Prediction of pass rate on the NCLEX-RN exam by the E2 was 98% for those students scoring 900 and above.  As expected, success of students on the NCLEX-RN fell with each lower scoring category on the E2.  Students scoring 699 or less on the E2 had only a 58% chance of passing NCLEX-RN. The predictive accuracy of the E2 is congruent for multiple administrations of parallel versions 1 and 2.  Use of case studies was shown to be an effective mechanism to enhance student scores on the E2 exit exam. The influence of progression policies is unclear as progression policies were not widely used across the sample.
Conclusion: The E2 remains highly predictive of NCLEX-RN success. Assessment of E2 performance offers to ability to identify students who are potentially at risk on the NCLEX RN exam and permits remedial action to enhance opportunity for success. Students who remediate and re-test with a parallel version of the E2 can expect to obtain accurate predictions of their readiness for successful completion of the licensing exam.