Research has shown that experienced clinicians can predict LOS no better than chance. Current CABG surgery LOS risk models differ greatly in generalizability and ease of use in the clinical setting. A predictive model that identified modifiable pre- and intra-operative risk factors for CVICU LOS greater than two days could have major public health implications. The primary aim of this study was to identify modifiable pre-and intra-operative predictors of CVICU LOS greater than two days for CABG surgery patients with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB).  Data were extracted from 416 medical records of CABG surgery patients with CPB, 50 to 80 years of age, recovered in the CVICU of a large teaching, referral hospital in southeastern Texas, during the calendar year 2004 and the first quarter of 2005.  Exclusion criteria included Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) 106, CABG surgery without CPB, CABG surgery with other procedures, and operative deaths.  The data were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression for an alpha=0.05, power=0.80, and correlation=0.26. 

This study found age, history of peripheral arterial disease, and total operative time equal to and greater than four hours to be predictors of CVICU LOS greater than two days.  The equation for the estimated logit is: -2.872941 + .0323081 (age in years) + .8177223 (history of peripheral arterial disease) + .70379 (operative time) and the estimated logistic probability is e ^{estimated logit}/1+e ^{estimated logit}.

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